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What is your growth hypothesis?
A well-constructed hypothesis that is testable and measurable is vital to building a nimble, capital-efficient, and resilient business. Join us on Tuesday, June 20th a Natural Products Business School workshop that will explore this in detail. This article will provide an overview that will help you prepare for an interactive session. You can register using this link .
Let’s start with an action step. Open your investor deck and go to the slide that includes the market size and the percentage you plan to capture. Move your finger to the top right-hand corner of your keyboard and press delete.
I am oversimplifying but not exaggerating. 90% or more of the investor/pitch decks I review have a slide that reads like the one described above. Then somewhere later, it includes slides that state the expected number of stores the brand will be in and the revenue it will generate. “We will be in 1,500 stores in year one growing to 5,000 in year two, and hitting 10,000 by year three.” The corresponding revenue slide reads, “Sales will be $1.5MM in year one, $8MM in year two, and by year three over $25MM.” The former is not a growth hypothesis; this is hope. Hope is not the foundation of a good strategy, nor is it likely to be investable.
A hypothesis is a tentative assumption(s) made to draw out and test its logical or empirical consequences (Merriam-Webster). Most founding teams start with conclusions, not assumptions, which is a mistake. It makes it harder to get a “yes” from an investor and puts them on a dangerous path without GPS or even a compass. Whether recognized or not, every growth plan is merely hypothetical, and the better developed the underlying assumptions are, the higher the chances are for real success.
So, what assumptions go into a well-constructed growth hypothesis? It differs for every project. For illustrative purposes, some include cost-of-goods, pricing architecture, volume on a deal, deal depth, velocity, store ramp, free-fill, shopper marketing, and more. They must be measurable and linear. Because as the definition above states, the next step is to test them. These tests can be small or large and depend on risk tolerance, access to capital, and bandwidth. They should be designed to be replicable and scalable. The goal is to either prove them true or false. True, signals the green light to press the accelerator down, providing the team and its investors the confidence that similar results would occur at scale given the additional resources needed. False provides the insight needed to adjust or pivot.
There is a lot more that goes into crafting a bottoms-up assumption-driven growth hypothesis, too much for this one article. However, if you take anything away from reading this, know that developing one is vital and is a best practice. Please don’t be one of the 90% or more who offers a conclusion with a bunch of hope. It won’t serve you well. Instead, consider the steps, time, and variables to deliver the desired results. Lay them out in a linear sequence and quantify them to be measured and monitored. Then, within your guardrails of risk and capital, get out into the market and test them.
Blog » Value Hypothesis & Growth Hypothesis: lean startup validation
Value Hypothesis & Growth Hypothesis: lean startup validation
Posted on September 16, 2021 |
You’ve come up with a fantastic idea for a startup and you need to discuss the hypothesis and its value? But you’re not sure if it’s a viable one or not. What do you do next? It’s essential to get your ideas right before you start developing them. 95% of new products fail in their first year of launch. Or to put it another way, only one in twenty product ideas succeed. In this article, we’ll be taking a look at why it’s so important to validate your startup idea before you start spending a lot of time and money developing it. And that’s where the Lean Startup Validation process gets into, alongside the growth hypothesis and value hypothesis. We’ll also be looking at the questions that you need to ask.
Table of contents
The lean startup validation methodology, the benefits of validating your startup idea, the value hypothesis, the growth hypothesis, recommendations and questions for creating and running a good hypothesis, in conclusion – take the time to validate your product.
What does it mean to validate a lean startup?
Validating your lean startup idea may sound like a complicated process, but it’s a lot simpler than you may think. It may be the case that you were already planning on carrying out some of the work.
Essentially, validating your startup when you check your idea to see if it solves a problem that your prospective customers have. You can do this by creating hypotheses and then carrying out research to see if these hypotheses are true or false.
The best startups have always been about finding a gap in the market and offering a product or service that solves the problem. For example, take Airbnb . Before Airbnb launched, people only had the option of staying in hotels. Airbnb opened up the hospitality industry, offering cheaper accommodation to people who could not afford to stay inexpensive hotels.
“Don’t be in a rush to get big. Be in a rush to have a great product” – Eric Ries
Validation is a crucial part of the lean startup methodology, which was devised by entrepreneur Eric Ries. The lean startup methodology is all about optimizing the amount of time that is needed to ensure a product or service is viable.
Lean Startup Validation is a critical part of the lean startup process as it helps make sure that an idea will be successful before time is spent developing the final product.
As an example of a failed idea where more validation could have helped, take Google Glass . It sounded like a good idea on paper, but the technology failed spectacularly. Customer research would have shown that $1,500 was too much money, that people were worried about health and safety, and most importantly… there was no apparent benefit to the product.
Find out more about lean startup methodology on our blog
How to create a mobile app using lean startup methodology
The key benefit of validating your lean startup idea is to make sure that the idea you have is a viable one before you start using resources to build and promote it.
There are other less obvious benefits too:
- It can help you fine-tune your idea. So, it may be the case that you wanted your idea to go in a particular direction, but user research shows that pivoting may be the best thing to do
- It can help you get funding. Investors may be more likely to invest in your startup idea if you have evidence that your idea is a viable one
The value hypothesis and the growth hypothesis – are two ways to validate your idea
“To grow a successful business, validate your idea with customers” – Chad Boyda
In Eric Rie’s book ‘ The Lean Startup’ , he identifies two different types of hypotheses that entrepreneurs can use to validate their startup idea – the growth hypothesis and the value hypothesis.
Let’s look at the two different ideas, how they compare, and how you can use them to see if your startup idea could work.
The value hypothesis tests whether your product or service provides customers with enough value and most importantly, whether they are prepared to pay for this value.
For example, let’s say that you want to develop a mobile app to help dog owners find people to help walk their dogs while they are at work. Before you start spending serious time and money developing the app, you’ll want to see if it is something of interest to your target audience.
Your value hypothesis could say, “we believe that 60% of dog owners aged between 30 and 40 would be willing to pay upwards of €10 a month for this service.”
You then find dog owners in this age range and ask them the question. You’re pleased to see that 75% say that they would be willing to pay this amount! Your hypothesis has worked! This means that you should focus your app and your advertising on this target audience.
If the data comes back and says your prospective target audience isn’t willing to pay, then it means you have to rethink and reframe your app before running another hypothesis. For example, you may want to focus on another demographic, or look at reducing the price of the subscription.
Shoe retailer Zappos used a value hypothesis when starting out. Founder Nick Swinmurn went to local shoe stores, taking photos of the shoes and posting them on the Zappos website. Then, if customers bought the shoes, he’d buy them from the store and send them out to them. This allowed him to see if there was interest in his website, without having to spend lots of money on stock.
The growth hypothesis tests how your customers will find your product or service and shows how your potential product could grow over the years.
Let’s go back to the dog-walking app we talked about earlier. You think that 80% of app downloads will come from word-of-mouth recommendations.
You create a minimal viable product ( MVP for short ) – this is a basic version of your app that may not contain all of the features just yet. So, you then upload it to the app stores and wait for people to start downloading it. When you have a baseline of customers, you send them an email asking them how they heard of your app.
When the feedback comes back, it shows that only 30% of downloads have come from word-of-mouth recommendations. This means that your growth hypothesis has not been successful in this scenario.
Does this mean that your idea is a bad one? Not necessarily. It just means that you may have to look at other ways of promoting your app. If you are relying on word-of-mouth recommendations to advertise it, then it could potentially fail.
Dropbox used growth hypotheses to its advantage when creating its software. The file-storage company constantly tweaked its website, running A/B tests to see which features and changes were most popular with customers, using them in the final product.
Like any good science experiment, there are things that you need to bear in mind when running your hypotheses. Here are our recommendations:
- You may be wondering which type of hypothesis you should carry out first – a growth hypothesis or a value hypothesis. Eric Ries recommends carrying out a value hypothesis first, as it makes sense to see if there is interest before seeing how many people are interested. However, the precise order may depend on the type of product or service you want to sell;
- You will probably need to run multiple hypotheses to validate your product or service. If you do this, be sure to only test one hypothesis at a time. If you end up testing multiple ones in one go, you may not be sure which hypothesis has had which result;
- Test your most critical assumption first – this is one that you are most worried about, and could affect your idea the most. It may be that solving this issue makes your product or service a viable one;
- Specific – is your hypothesis simple? If it’s jumbled or confusing, you’re not going to get the best results from it. If you’re struggling to put together a clear hypothesis, it’s probably a sign to go back to the drawing board.
- Measurable – can your hypothesis be measured? You’ll want to get tangible results so you can check if the changes you have made have worked.
- Achievable – is your hypothesis attainable? If not, you may want to break it down into smaller goals.
- Relevant – will your hypothesis prove the validity of your product or service?
- Timely – can your hypothesis be measured in a set amount of time? You don’t want a goal that will take years to monitor and measure!
- Be as critical as possible. If you have created an idea, it is only natural that you want it to succeed. However, being objective rather than subjective will help your startup most in the long term;
- When you are carrying out customer research, use as vast a pool of people as time and money will allow. This will result in more accurate data. The great news is that you can use social media and other networking sites to reach out to potential customers and ask them their opinions;
- When carrying out customer research, be sure to ask the questions that matter. Bear in mind that liking your product or service isn’t the same as buying it. If a customer is enthusiastic about your idea, be sure to ask follow-on questions about why they like it, or if they would be willing to spend money on it. Otherwise, your data may end up being useless;
- While it is essential to have as many relevant hypotheses as possible, be careful not to have too many. While it may sound like a good idea to try out lots of different ideas, it can actually be counter-productive. As Eric Ries said:
“Don’t bog new teams down with too much information about falsifiable hypotheses. Because if we load our teams up with too much theory, they can easily get stuck in analysis paralysis. I’ve worked with teams that have come up with hundreds of leap-of-faith assumptions. They listed so many assumptions that were so detailed and complicated that they couldn’t decide what to do next. They were paralyzed by the just sheer quantity of the list.”
“We must learn what customers really want, not what they say they want or what we think they should want.” – Eric Ries
According to CB Insights , the number one reason why startups fail is that there is no demand for the product. Many entrepreneurs have gone ahead and launched a product that they think people want, only to find that there is no market at all.
Lean Startup Validation is essential in helping your business idea to succeed. While it may seem like extra work, the additional work you do in the beginning will be of a critical advantage later down the line.
Still not 100% convinced? Take HubSpot . Before HubSpot launched its sales and marketing services, it started off as a blog. Co-founders Dharmesh Shah and Brian Halligan used this blog to validate their ideas and see what their visitors wanted. This helped them confirm that their concept was on the right lines and meant they could launch a product that people actually wanted to use.
Validating a startup idea before development is crucial because it ensures that the idea is viable and addresses a real problem that customers have. With a high failure rate of new products, validation helps avoid wasting time and resources on ideas that might not succeed.
The value hypothesis tests whether customers find enough value in a product or service to pay for it. The growth hypothesis examines how customers will discover and adopt the product over time. Both hypotheses are essential for validating the viability of a startup idea.
Eric Ries recommends starting with a value hypothesis before a growth hypothesis. Validating whether the idea provides value is crucial before considering how to promote and grow it.
When creating and running a hypothesis, consider the following: 1. Focus on testing one hypothesis at a time. 2. Test your most critical assumptions first. 3. Ensure your hypothesis follows SMART goals (Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, Timely). 4. Use a wide pool of potential customers for accurate data. 5. Ask relevant and probing questions during customer research. 6. Avoid overwhelming your team with excessive hypotheses.
Validating your product idea before development helps you avoid the top reason for startup failure—lack of demand for the product. By confirming that there is a market need and interest in your idea, you increase the chances of building a successful product.
Lean Startup Validation helps entrepreneurs avoid the mistake of launching a product that doesn’t address a genuine need. By gathering evidence and feedback early, you can make informed decisions about pivoting or refining your idea before investing significant time and resources.
Certainly. Suppose you’re developing a mobile app for dog owners to find dog-walking services. Your value hypothesis could be: “We believe that 60% of dog owners aged between 30 and 40 would be willing to pay upwards of €10 a month for this service.” You then validate this hypothesis by surveying dog owners in that age range and analyzing their responses.
The growth hypothesis examines how customers will discover and adopt your product. If, for example, you expect 80% of app downloads to come from word-of-mouth recommendations, but feedback shows only 30% are from this source, you may need to reevaluate your promotion strategy.
Yes, Lean Startup Validation can be applied to startups across various industries. Whether you’re offering a product or service, the process of testing hypotheses and gathering evidence applies universally to ensure the viability of your idea.
To gather accurate data, focus on reaching a diverse pool of potential customers through various channels, including social media and networking sites. Ask relevant questions about their preferences, willingness to pay, and potential pain points related to your idea
Being critical and objective during validation helps you avoid confirmation bias and wishful thinking. Objectivity allows you to assess whether your idea truly addresses a problem and resonates with customers, ensuring that your startup’s foundation is built on solid evidence.
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12 min read
Value Hypothesis 101: A Product Manager's Guide
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Humans make assumptions every day—it’s our brain’s way of making sense of the world around us, but assumptions are only valuable if they're verifiable . That’s where a value hypothesis comes in as your starting point.
A good hypothesis goes a step beyond an assumption. It’s a verifiable and validated guess based on the value your product brings to your real-life customers. When you verify your hypothesis, you confirm that the product has real-world value, thus you have a higher chance of product success.
What Is a Verifiable Value Hypothesis?
A value hypothesis is an educated guess about the value proposition of your product. When you verify your hypothesis , you're using evidence to prove that your assumption is correct. A hypothesis is verifiable if it does not prove false through experimentation or is shown to have rational justification through data, experiments, observation, or tests.
The most significant benefit of verifying a hypothesis is that it helps you avoid product failure and helps you build your product to your customers’ (and potential customers’) needs.
Verifying your assumptions is all about collecting data. Without data obtained through experiments, observations, or tests, your hypothesis is unverifiable, and you can’t be sure there will be a market need for your product.
A Verifiable Value Hypothesis Minimizes Risk and Saves Money
When you verify your hypothesis, you’re less likely to release a product that doesn’t meet customer expectations—a waste of your company’s resources. Harvard Business School explains that verifying a business hypothesis “...allows an organization to verify its analysis is correct before committing resources to implement a broader strategy.”
If you verify your hypothesis upfront, you’ll lower risk and have time to work out product issues.
UserVoice Validation makes product validation accessible to everyone. Consider using its research feature to speed up your hypothesis verification process.
Value Hypotheses vs. Growth Hypotheses
Your value hypothesis focuses on the value of your product to customers. This type of hypothesis can apply to a product or company and is a building block of product-market fit .
A growth hypothesis is a guess at how your business idea may develop in the long term based on how potential customers may find your product. It’s meant for estimating business model growth rather than individual products.
Because your value hypothesis is really the foundation for your growth hypothesis, you should focus on value hypothesis tests first and complete growth hypothesis tests to estimate business growth as a whole once you have a viable product.
4 Tips to Create and Test a Verifiable Value Hypothesis
A verifiable hypothesis needs to be based on a logical structure, customer feedback data , and objective safeguards like creating a minimum viable product. Validating your value significantly reduces risk . You can prevent wasting money, time, and resources by verifying your hypothesis in early-stage development.
A good value hypothesis utilizes a framework (like the template below), data, and checks/balances to avoid bias.
1. Use a Template to Structure Your Value Hypothesis
By using a template structure, you can create an educated guess that includes the most important elements of a hypothesis—the who, what, where, when, and why. If you don’t structure your hypothesis correctly, you may only end up with a flimsy or leap-of-faith assumption that you can’t verify.
A true hypothesis uses a few guesses about your product and organizes them so that you can verify or falsify your assumptions. Using a template to structure your hypothesis can ensure that you’re not missing the specifics.
You can’t just throw a hypothesis together and think it will answer the question of whether your product is valuable or not. If you do, you could end up with faulty data informed by bias , a skewed significance level from polling the wrong people, or only a vague idea of what your customer would actually pay for your product.
A template will help keep your hypothesis on track by standardizing the structure of the hypothesis so that each new hypothesis always includes the specifics of your client personas, the cost of your product, and client or customer pain points.
A value hypothesis template might look like:
[Client] will spend [cost] to purchase and use our [title of product/service] to solve their [specific problem] OR help them overcome [specific obstacle].
An example of your hypothesis might look like:
B2B startups will spend $500/mo to purchase our resource planning software to solve resource over-allocation and employee burnout.
By organizing your ideas and the important elements (who, what, where, when, and why), you can come up with a hypothesis that actually answers the question of whether your product is useful and valuable to your ideal customer.
2. Turn Customer Feedback into Data to Support Your Hypothesis
Once you have your hypothesis, it’s time to figure out whether it’s true—or, more accurately, prove that it’s valid. Since a hypothesis is never considered “100% proven,” it’s referred to as either valid or invalid based on the information you discover in your experiments or tests. Additionally, your results could lead to an alternative hypothesis, which is helpful in refining your core idea.
To support value hypothesis testing, you need data. To do that, you'll want to collect customer feedback . A customer feedback management tool can also make it easier for your team to access the feedback and create strategies to implement or improve customer concerns.
If you find that potential clients are not expressing pain points that could be solved with your product or you’re not seeing an interest in the features you hope to add, you can adjust your hypothesis and absorb a lower risk. Because you didn’t invest a lot of time and money into creating the product yet, you should have more resources to put toward the product once you work out the kinks.
On the other hand, if you find that customers are requesting features your product offers or pain points your product could solve, then you can move forward with product development, confident that your future customers will value (and spend money on) the product you’re creating.
A customer feedback management tool like UserVoice can empower you to challenge assumptions from your colleagues (often based on anecdotal information) which find their way into team decision making . Having data to reevaluate an assumption helps with prioritization, and it confirms that you’re focusing on the right things as an organization.
3. Validate Your Product
Since you have a clear idea of who your ideal customer is at this point and have verified their need for your product, it’s time to validate your product and decide if it’s better than your competitors’.
At this point, simply asking your customers if they would buy your product (or spend more on your product) instead of a competitor’s isn’t enough confirmation that you should move forward, and customers may be biased or reluctant to provide critical feedback.
Instead, create a minimum viable product (MVP). An MVP is a working, bare-bones version of the product that you can test out without risking your whole budget. Hypothesis testing with an MVP simulates the product experience for customers and, based on their actions and usage, validates that the full product will generate revenue and be successful.
If you take the steps to first verify and then validate your hypothesis using data, your product is more likely to do well. Your focus will be on the aspect that matters most—whether your customer actually wants and would invest money in purchasing the product.
4. Use Safeguards to Remain Objective
One of the pitfalls of believing in your product and attempting to validate it is that you’re subject to confirmation bias . Because you want your product to succeed, you may pay more attention to the answers in the collected data that affirm the value of your product and gloss over the information that may lead you to conclude that your hypothesis is actually false. Confirmation bias could easily cloud your vision or skew your metrics without you even realizing it.
Since it’s hard to know when you’re engaging in confirmation bias, it’s good to have safeguards in place to keep you in check and aligned with the purpose of objectively evaluating your value hypothesis.
Safeguards include sharing your findings with third-party experts or simply putting yourself in the customer’s shoes.
Third-party experts are the business version of seeking a peer review. External parties don’t stand to benefit from the outcome of your verification and validation process, so your work is verified and validated objectively. You gain the benefit of knowing whether your hypothesis is valid in the eyes of the people who aren’t stakeholders without the risk of confirmation bias.
In addition to seeking out objective minds, look into potential counter-arguments , such as customer objections (explicit or imagined). What might your customer think about investing the time to learn how to use your product? Will they think the value is commensurate with the monetary cost of the product?
When running an experiment on validating your hypothesis, it’s important not to elevate the importance of your beliefs over the objective data you collect. While it can be exciting to push for the validity of your idea, it can lead to false assumptions and the permission of weak evidence.
Validation Is the Key to Product Success
With your new value hypothesis in hand, you can confidently move forward, knowing that there’s a true need, desire, and market for your product.
Because you’ve verified and validated your guesses, there’s less of a chance that you’re wrong about the value of your product, and there are fewer financial and resource risks for your company. With this strong foundation and the new information you’ve uncovered about your customers, you can add even more value to your product or use it to make more products that fit the market and user needs.
If you think customer feedback management software would be useful in your hypothesis validation process, consider opting into our free trial to see how UserVoice can help.
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Start your business correctly with a value hypothesis and growth hypothesis
Understanding the value hypothesis and the growth hypothesis
A hypothesis is something that we expect to happen in the future, and we try to recognize it and explain it with the current facts or evidence without the certainty of being true, it is a supposition.
People tend to do this for everything, but when it is related to our business we make assumptions on our product with what we already know, such as: the problem we are solving, the market, the customer we are directing to, etc.:
Examples of this can be:
• The magnitude of the problem of your potential client.
• The best channel to use for promotion (taking into consideration statistics and your customers’ profile).
• How much your client earns and how much is the cost of my product or service.
• How you will increase your number of leads.
• The resources needed.
All of these are hypotheses since we don’t have a way to make sure that they are correct, but it is necessary to think about them and keep them in mind for many reasons before starting, to evaluate the market and to think how they can change with our product or service.
A value hypothesis proposes an assumption on how a product is valuable to potential customers. Even though your “potential customers” could be an assumption as well.
A value hypothesis is more about the market now. It is a hypothesis that contains the exact value you would give to potential clients. At this point you have to think about how to offer something really valuable that solves clients’ problems and desires, and also, that they can use and buy.
It is related to the traditional market study that you have to do at the beginning of the development of your idea. But in this case, you make suppositions based on studies and the reach of your business.
These suppositions can give you the conversion percent you will have in a short and medium period of time, and the best part is that you can prove them by practicing exercises and experiments with people.
Examples of your reasons why people would use your product:
• Customers use my product because they want to share their special moments with others
• Customers use my platform because they want to learn how to develop a new career
• Customers use my app because they want to keep in touch with their relatives
A growth hypothesis is a supposition that looks like a plan about how your business will grow or evolve in the long future. This hypothesis makes the business scalable and sustainable through time.
This kind of hypothesis allows you to detect if the business you want to start is valid and if you will have enough amount of clients converted to support the costs structure, even if it can cover the evolution of your processes or production.
In the software world, usually, this hypothesis is used to explain how the system, app, or platform it’s going to be discovered by new users.
In that way, you can validate at the beginning if the business you want to start is sustainable and viable.
How is the value and growth hypothesis related to the Cobuild Process?
How we said some posts ago, in part 1 of Cobuild’s Process you have to validate the idea because you are going to improve it over time, this means that you’ll keep working on that until you make it more likely to succeed.
The complete process of validation will be surrounded by hypotheses: Problem, Hypothesis (everything you know about the problem they have), Product hypothesis (the things you will do to solve it), Client Hypothesis (Who is the client), Solution Hypothesis, Value Hypothesis, Grow Hypothesis, etc. So, the purpose of this stage is to prove them to a point that a least you achieve certainty that they are not completely wrong.
It doesn’t matter if you want to validate hypotheses on the future (growth hypothesis) or now (value hypothesis), the most important thing it is that you can finally be confident that your idea is the solution to the desires and necessities of customers.
So, the growth and value hypothesis are too much related with to Cobuild’s process in the first phase of validation. And as we said before, this is the most important step before starting a business.
A good and proven way to test a hypothesis is to use the Build-Measure-Learn feedback loop, proposed by The Lean Startup . Here the goal is to design experiments and create small tests to apply to potential customers, in order to acquire results, measure, and learn from them to achieve Validated Learning
Doing a value hypothesis and a growth hypothesis
You can make as many hypotheses of your business idea as you want, but here, we will show you a bit of advice on how to do it:
1. First, write the main idea.
2. Write down the next questions:
• Who is the client?
• What problems do they really have?
• How many potential clients like them are around?
• What can I do to convert them?
• Can they pay for my service or product?
• How much are they willing to pay?
• Where are they in the world?
• How can I have access to them?
• How can I attract them?
• How will my product be known?
• Which characteristics of my product add value to them?
• Do they have enough economical resources?
• How much do they earn?
• What are they looking for?
• What do I need to solve the problem?
• Which resources are involved?
• What is my expectation about the product in future years?
• Which resources will I need in the future?
• What do I think the conversion percent will be?
3. Answer these questions and order the list depending on your priorities.
4. Separate the answer on things you can know and make now from the things that are in the future. In that way, you will get the growth and the value hypotheses.
5. Write them and prove them by using testing, interviews, surveys, and other resources.
6. Get a conclusion
7. Improve your idea from there.
Let’s see an example
Now you know: the value hypothesis and growth hypothesis are more than necessaties to start your business idea correctly. They are in the first step of the Cobuild’s Process, and they will increase your chances of satisfying your customers. We invite you to do it now, and if you need any assistance we are here to help.
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